Posts Tagged ‘health care predictions’

Innovation Summit – Obesity, Diabetes & the Metabolic Crisis

November 2, 2010

This week I attended the Cleveland Clinic Innovation Summit and contributed to the live tweeting of the event. There was substantial discussion of devices in the pipeline and drugs for diabetes but a less optimistic outlook on drugs for obesity with some being shut down by the FDA. The most scientific yet controversial presenter was JefferyFriedman, who referred to his 2009 Newsweek article on “The Real Cause of Obesity” as a summary of his position that most of obesity is genetically determined.  Many referred to the recent prediction posted by the CDC that the current incidence of diabetes being around 10% of the population with the potential of growing to 20 – 30% by 2050.

At the end of day two, the annual announcement of Top 10 Innovations. The final day will include health IT interventions for obesity and diabetes.

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Declining Marginal Returns of Complexity

June 21, 2010

Just completed the book The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter, an archeologist. The focus of the book is on civilizations like the Roman Empire and the Mayas but it made me wonder about the complexity of health care and whether we are at the point of declining marginal returns.  It is apparent from the health care reform experience that competing stakeholders make any attempt at reform a complex and nearly impossible process. Clay Shirky wrote a blog post in April on The Collapse of Complex Business Models. Just like societies which become too complex to respond to major stressors.  While I am not predicting the collapse of health care in the US but one must wonder whether some of the complexity could be simplified by the experience of other countries, such as, single payer systems and an emphasis on primary care (medical home).  Would be interested in other opinions, especially from those who have read the book.

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Individualized Cancer Treatment

August 19, 2008

This Cancer Group from California is offering individualized treatment based on an assay of cancer cells and testing them against specific agents. It is also a revolutionary approach in that you can check on individual patient progress. This breaks out of the standard randomized controlled clinical trial and provides a new avenue for treatment. Is it the new direction for all cancer treatments as cancer represents over 100 diseases and manifests itself differently in each individual?

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